Armenian ruling party wins election with 49.8%, Russia disputes victory claim

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan claimed victory in parliamentary elections held on June 8, despite his ruling Civil Contract party falling just short of an absolute majority with 49.82 percent of the vote. The election was widely viewed internationally as a crucial test of Armenia's geopolitical orientation and a referendum on its relationship with Russia.

Preliminary results showed that while Pashinyan's party remained the largest political force, it failed to achieve an absolute majority for the first time since he came to power in 2018. Nevertheless, the Prime Minister declared the election results a clear mandate to continue his policies. Voter turnout was approximately 60 percent, considered average by Armenian standards.

The election took place against the backdrop of significant tensions between Armenia and its traditional ally Russia. These tensions emerged primarily after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, when Armenia suffered heavy territorial losses to Azerbaijan. Pashinyan criticized Russia's role as a security guarantor at the time and began a foreign policy reorientation toward Europe and the United States.

Russia's response to the election results was notably hostile. According to reports from the independent Russian news outlet Meduza, Russia's presidential administration instructed state and pro-Kremlin media to emphasize in their coverage that Pashinyan's party received less than 50 percent of the vote. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that the results showed the ruling party did not receive a monopoly on power.

Additionally, Russia accused the West of interfering in the Armenian elections. Zakharova claimed the vote proceeded under pressure on the opposition and Western interference. These accusations were rejected by Western observers, who in turn accused Russia of attempting to influence the election.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha interpreted the election results as further evidence of Russia's waning geopolitical influence. He referenced similar failed Russian influence attempts in Romania, Moldova, and Hungary. This assessment reflects the broader geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the West in the region.

Western media and observers described the election as an endorsement of Armenia's pro-Western shift. France's news channel France24 characterized the vote as a national referendum on the country's direction and saw Pashinyan's victory as confirmation of the turn away from Moscow despite Russian threats and interference allegations.

The election results have important implications for the regional security architecture in the South Caucasus. Armenia was traditionally a close Russian ally and member of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Under Pashinyan, however, the country has increasingly distanced itself from Russia and built closer ties with the European Union and the United States.

Despite the electoral victory, Pashinyan faces significant domestic challenges. The opposition continues to criticize him harshly for territorial losses in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and accuses him of endangering national security. Without an absolute majority, government formation could become more complicated, although Pashinyan is expected to remain in office.

The international community is closely monitoring developments in Armenia, as they could have implications for the entire region. The election results signal a continuation of Armenia's geopolitical realignment, which brings both opportunities and risks for regional stability. The outcome reflects ongoing tensions between competing spheres of influence in the South Caucasus.

The election was also significant for demonstrating the resilience of Armenia's democratic institutions despite external pressures. International observers noted that the vote was conducted fairly, despite allegations of interference from multiple directions. This has important implications for democratic consolidation in a region where authoritarian influences remain strong.