Trump sees 50-50 chance for Iran deal as negotiations show progress

US President Donald Trump expressed cautious optimism about progress in ongoing negotiations with Iran while making clear he sees only a 50-50 chance for a successful agreement. In several media interviews on Saturday, Trump said negotiators from both sides were getting "a lot closer" to a deal, but warned of devastating military consequences if talks should fail.

Speaking to CBS News, Trump explained that a final agreement would need to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and ensure that Iran's enriched uranium would be "satisfactorily handled." "I will only sign a deal where we get everything we want," Trump was quoted as saying. In a phone call with an Axios reporter, he escalated his rhetoric, stating: "Either we reach a good deal or I'll blow them to a thousand hells."

Pakistan is playing a crucial role as mediator between Washington and Tehran. Pakistani Army Chief Syed Asim Munir conducted intensive talks with senior Iranian officials in Tehran over the past 24 hours. A Pakistani security official briefed on the meetings reported "significant progress" and explained that a memorandum of understanding was being "fine-tuned" to end the conflict between the US and Iran.

All three parties involved - the United States, Iran, and Pakistan - expressed optimism on Saturday about the progress of negotiations. Pakistani military representatives emphasized that discussions over recent hours had produced encouraging progress toward a final understanding. The talks focused on expediting the consultative process and creating a foundation for a lasting agreement.

Iran also sent cautiously positive signals, though linked to clear conditions. A spokesperson for Iran's defense ministry told Tasnim News that Trump must accept what he described as Iran's "legitimate rights and demands" if he wants to avoid further setbacks. Washington had "no choice" but to recognize the demands of the Iranian people and the country's rights.

An Iranian government official clarified Tehran's priorities in the ongoing peace talks to Al Jazeera: "Ending the war, lifting the US blockade, and ensuring the stability of the Strait of Hormuz are priorities." The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, also emphasized that Tehran views economic relief as central to any deal, not a secondary issue. The release of frozen assets was highlighted as an important point.

Trump announced he would meet with senior advisors to discuss the updated draft of the agreement and make a decision by Sunday. This timeline underscores the urgency of the situation and the pressure under which negotiations are taking place. The US president had previously indicated that the Iran conflict made it impossible for him to attend his son Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding, as his "love for the US" would not allow it.

The conflict between the US and Iran has now lasted three months. According to reports, a possible framework for an agreement envisions a 30-day ceasefire during which intensive negotiations for a permanent solution would be conducted. The talks address various aspects, including Iran's nuclear program, stability of crucial shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, and the lifting of economic sanctions.

Despite reported progress, significant challenges remain. Trump made clear he would only accept an agreement that fully meets American demands. Meanwhile, Iran insists on recognition of its rights and lifting of the economic blockade. The coming days will show whether these different positions can be reconciled or whether the conflict will experience further escalation.

The negotiations come at a critical juncture, with both sides appearing to recognize the need for a diplomatic solution while maintaining firm positions on their core demands. The involvement of Pakistan as a mediator has provided a crucial channel for communication between the adversaries. However, the narrow timeline Trump has set for a decision adds pressure to an already complex diplomatic process.

Observers note that the current talks represent the most serious diplomatic effort to resolve the conflict since it began three months ago. The reported progress in recent hours suggests that both sides may be closer to a breakthrough than at any point since the crisis began, though significant obstacles clearly remain.